Background

Notes and format last updated May 7, 2020

Starting on the May 7th update, the NY Times began including probable covid cases/deaths along with confirmed. This mostly affects death counts – for certain geographies that include probable COVID deaths in addition to confirmed, these are now added to the totals. For the time being, they were all added to the May 6th totals, causing a big spike at the U.S. level. Over time, NY Times will revise their historical counts and distribute these added deaths when they actually occurred, so the spike should fade.

Growth rates

Heat maps

  • The two heat maps below compare how quickly total cases or deaths have grown at various times in our respective geopgraphies.
  • The first plot compares growth rate for total cases; the second, growth rate for total deaths.
  • The metric used is doubling time, by which I mean how quickly total cases or deaths are doubling.
  • The plots track that doubling time at each date for our geographies. Darker colors reflect shorter doubling times, and thus periods of faster growth.
    • You can use the plots to track each geography over time and to compare the geographies to one another.
    • You can also compare the cases and death charts, to see how faster periods of death growth follow faster periods of case growth.

Case growth rates

  • This section charts the growth rate of both total and new cases for each of our respective geographies. Each geography has its own chart, and then that chart will have a trendline for total cases and new cases.
    • There are only plots for the U.S. and states because the numbers for the counties are too small to generate worthwhile trendlines in this section.
  • Note that we’re charting growth rate and not a count of cases, so don’t think of these as the standard “curve” that we hear about in the news and that we want to flatten. Instead, these growth rate charts help track more precisely what we can only estimate when we see those other curves. For these growth rate charts, if the line is above zero, the metric we are tracking (total or new cases) is continuing to grow. If the growth rate line is going up, it’s growing more quickly each day; if it’s going down but still above zero, it’s growing less quickly (but still growing). Only when the growth rate lines go below zero has the metric stopped growing.
  • Each of these two lines uses rolling windows to calculate a growth rate for that particular metric. I do the calculation differently for each to smooth out some of the large day-to-day discrepancies in new case reporting at the state level.
    • For total cases, the trendlines are a rolling 3-day average of daily growth rates in total cases. We want to see these decline (and almost all are), but they can’t go below zero. This is because we’re tracking growth rate and a growth rate line below zero would mean total cases have gone down, which can’t happen. They can only grow less quickly, which means we want to see the total case line get as close to zero as possible.
    • For new cases, the trendlines show a rolling 3-day average of daily growth rate in the rolling 7-day average of new cases. Including two rolling periods in this average helps smooth out crazy spikes at the state level that result from large day-to-day changes. Unlike the lines for total cases, we want to watch for the lines for new cases to get consistently below zero and stay there. That means that we are consistently seeing fewer new cases on a daily basis.

U.S.

Our states

Death growth rates

  • This section charts the growth rate of both total and new deaths for each of our respective geographies. Each geography has its own chart, and then that chart will have a trendline for total deaths and new deaths.
    • There are only plots for the U.S. and states because the numbers for the counties are too small to generate worthwhile trendlines in this section.
  • Note that we’re charting growth rate and not a count of deaths, so don’t think of these as the standard “curve” that we hear about in the news and that we want to flatten. Instead, these growth rate charts help track more precisely what we can only estimate when we see those other curves. For these growth rate charts, if the line is above zero, the metric we are tracking (total or new deaths) is continuing to grow. If the growth rate line is going up, it’s growing more quickly each day; if it’s going down but still above zero, it’s growing less quickly (but still growing). Only when the growth rate lines go below zero has the metric stopped growing.
  • Each of these two lines uses rolling windows to calculate a growth rate for that particular metric. I do the calculation differently for each to smooth out some of the large day-to-day discrepancies in new death reporting at the state level.
    • For total deaths, the trendlines are a rolling 3-day average of daily growth rates in total deaths. We want to see these decline (and almost all are), but they can’t go below zero. This is because we’re tracking growth rate and a growth rate line below zero would mean total deaths have gone down, which can’t happen. They can only grow less quickly, which means we want to see the total death line get as close to zero as possible.
    • For new deaths, the trendlines show a rolling 3-day average of daily growth rate in the rolling 7-day average of new deaths. Including two rolling periods in this average helps smooth out crazy spikes at the state level that result from large day-to-day changes. Unlike the lines for total deaths, we want to watch for the lines for new deaths to get consistently below zero and stay there. That means that we are consistently seeing fewer new deaths on a daily basis.

U.S.

Our states

By population rankings

This section tracks metrics for states and counties normalized for population (number of cases or deaths per million residents), and then compares these figures both for our geographies and the country overall.

States

  • This section shows tables ranking all 50 states for per populations rates of total cases, new cases, total deaths, and new deaths.
  • For each metric, in addition to the tables, the trends for the top states are plotted over time.
    • We only plot the top ten states for each metric so that the plots aren’t too crowded. But you can view the full 50-state rankings in the tables.

Total confirmed cases

Table of total confirmed cases per million residents (all 50 states)
Ranking State Cases Per Million
1 North Dakota 138,106
2 South Dakota 136,073
3 Rhode Island 135,223
4 Utah 122,034
5 Tennessee 119,066
6 Arizona 116,954
7 Iowa 113,593
8 Oklahoma 112,279
9 Wisconsin 111,345
10 Nebraska 111,301
11 Arkansas 110,234
12 South Carolina 109,722
13 New Jersey 108,473
14 Alabama 106,212
15 Kansas 105,591
16 Indiana 104,760
17 Mississippi 103,526
18 Idaho 103,201
19 Delaware 102,196
20 Illinois 101,994
21 New York 101,349
22 Nevada 100,371
23 Montana 99,884
24 Florida 99,716
25 Georgia 99,309
26 Wyoming 98,706
27 Kentucky 98,141
28 Texas 97,987
29 Minnesota 97,023
30 Louisiana 96,944
31 Missouri 96,763
32 Massachusetts 96,473
33 California 93,875
34 New Mexico 92,700
35 Connecticut 91,801
36 North Carolina 90,131
37 Ohio 89,480
38 Alaska 88,863
39 Pennsylvania 85,415
40 Michigan 85,120
41 Colorado 84,441
42 West Virginia 82,137
43 Virginia 75,005
44 Maryland 71,213
45 New Hampshire 66,178
46 District of Columbia 65,475
47 Washington 50,247
48 Puerto Rico 47,421
49 Maine 41,194
50 Oregon 40,829
51 Vermont 34,436
52 Hawaii 22,065

New confirmed cases

Table of new cases per million residents: rolling 3-day average (all 50 states)
Ranking State New Cases Per Million
1 Michigan 1,004
2 Rhode Island 677
3 Connecticut 534
4 Pennsylvania 422
5 New Jersey 375
6 Maine 350
7 Alaska 341
8 Delaware 323
9 North Carolina 319
10 Minnesota 298
11 New York 287
12 Colorado 286
13 New Hampshire 276
14 Florida 270
15 Puerto Rico 264
16 Massachusetts 259
17 South Dakota 253
18 Tennessee 247
19 Illinois 245
20 Idaho 218
21 North Dakota 205
22 Washington 200
23 Maryland 199
24 West Virginia 192
25 Ohio 185
26 Virginia 181
27 District of Columbia 179
28 Nebraska 168
29 Montana 163
30 Indiana 162
31 Texas 161
32 New Mexico 160
33 Kentucky 154
34 Vermont 152
35 Wisconsin 149
36 Wyoming 146
37 Iowa 145
38 South Carolina 145
39 Georgia 139
40 Louisiana 131
41 Oregon 129
42 Alabama 127
43 Kansas 126
44 Oklahoma 124
45 Nevada 122
46 Utah 111
47 Missouri 103
48 Arizona 78
49 Mississippi 74
50 California 72
51 Hawaii 46
52 Arkansas 45

Total deaths

Table of total deaths per million residents (all 50 states)
Ranking State Deaths Per Million
1 New Jersey 2,813
2 New York 2,613
3 Massachusetts 2,528
4 Rhode Island 2,493
5 Mississippi 2,393
6 Arizona 2,350
7 Connecticut 2,239
8 Louisiana 2,207
9 South Dakota 2,201
10 Alabama 2,187
11 Pennsylvania 1,998
12 North Dakota 1,974
13 Indiana 1,958
14 New Mexico 1,906
15 Illinois 1,883
16 Arkansas 1,882
17 Iowa 1,856
18 South Carolina 1,807
19 Georgia 1,789
20 Michigan 1,770
21 Tennessee 1,747
22 Nevada 1,737
23 Texas 1,707
24 Kansas 1,697
25 Oklahoma 1,692
26 Delaware 1,633
27 Ohio 1,618
28 Florida 1,590
29 District of Columbia 1,541
30 West Virginia 1,537
31 California 1,535
32 Missouri 1,482
33 Kentucky 1,428
34 Montana 1,427
35 Maryland 1,404
36 Wisconsin 1,271
37 Minnesota 1,251
38 Virginia 1,231
39 Wyoming 1,214
40 Nebraska 1,203
41 North Carolina 1,177
42 Idaho 1,123
43 Colorado 1,095
44 New Hampshire 927
45 Washington 710
46 Puerto Rico 683
47 Utah 674
48 Oregon 583
49 Maine 563
50 Alaska 410
51 Vermont 379
52 Hawaii 331

New deaths

Table of new deaths per million residents: rolling 3-day average (all 50 states)
Ranking State New Deaths Per Million
1 Colorado 5
2 Missouri 5
3 Delaware 4
4 Michigan 4
5 New Jersey 4
6 Connecticut 3
7 District of Columbia 3
8 Georgia 3
9 Louisiana 3
10 New Mexico 3
11 New York 3
12 Pennsylvania 3
13 Vermont 3
14 Arkansas 2
15 California 2
16 Florida 2
17 Idaho 2
18 Kentucky 2
19 Maryland 2
20 Mississippi 2
21 Nevada 2
22 North Carolina 2
23 Ohio 2
24 Oklahoma 2
25 Puerto Rico 2
26 West Virginia 2
27 Alabama 1
28 Arizona 1
29 Illinois 1
30 Indiana 1
31 Maine 1
32 Massachusetts 1
33 Minnesota 1
34 North Dakota 1
35 Rhode Island 1
36 South Carolina 1
37 Tennessee 1
38 Texas 1
39 Virginia 1
40 Washington 1
41 Wisconsin 1
42 Wyoming 1
43 Alaska 0
44 Hawaii 0
45 Iowa 0
46 Kansas 0
47 Montana 0
48 Nebraska 0
49 New Hampshire 0
50 Oregon 0
51 South Dakota 0
52 Utah 0

Counties

  • This section focuses on the county level. It shows tables with our counties ranked by percentile of U.S. counties for per population rates of total cases and total deaths.
    • Each table also shows the top five counties in the country in addition to our counties, for added perspecive.
  • In addition to the tables, our counties’ percentile for both total cases and total deaths are plotted over time.

Confirmed cases

Table showing total cases per million and percentile for all US counties. Includes our counties and the top 5 in the US for perspective.
County State Cases Per Million Raw Ranking Percentile
Crowley Colorado 355,387 1 99
Chattahoochee Georgia 345,925 2 99
Bent Colorado 266,631 3 99
Dewey South Dakota 245,418 4 99
Lincoln Arkansas 244,856 5 99
Davidson Tennessee 138,320 195 93
Richland South Carolina 107,858 1014 67
York South Carolina 104,994 1143 63
Orange California 84,555 2097 33
Pierce Washington 49,956 2895 7

Our county percentiles over time

Deaths

Table showing total deaths per million and percentile for all US counties. Includes our counties and the top 5 in the US for perspective.
County State Deaths Per Million Raw Ranking Percentile
Foard Texas 8,658 1 99
Gove Kansas 8,346 2 99
Jerauld South Dakota 7,948 3 99
Galax city Virginia 7,878 4 99
Emporia city Virginia 7,856 5 99
Orange California 1,531 1787 43
Davidson Tennessee 1,328 2024 35
York South Carolina 1,313 2043 34
Richland South Carolina 1,292 2075 33
Pierce Washington 693 2722 13

Our county percentiles over time

Raw counts

Total confirmed cases

U.S.

Our states

Our counties

New confirmed cases

U.S.

Our states

Our counties

Total deaths

U.S.

Our states

Our counties

New deaths

U.S.

Our states

Our counties

Stay-at-home comparisons